02 กุมภาพันธ์ 2552

SHADOW BOXING

We need to learn from the past and we need to take care of the present, but I have to admit, right now it is extremely depressing to do either.
As I write, the Emergency Decree has been announced though no action as yet has been taken against the protesters. The government has retreated to the safe haven of Chiang Mai and remains eerily very detached from the crisis that is unfolding in the nation's capital.
The consistent line taken by the government is: we cannot resign or dissolve parliament because we need to protect democracy.
This is wrong. Any genuinely democratic government would feel responsible for what is happening and, conversely, only non-democratic regimes would feel that it can hold on to power even though it can no longer govern.
One thing is certain - Suvarnabhumi Airport cannot be closed indefinitely. The government has neglected to address this problem but seems instead focused on organising protests to discredit the Constitution Court.
The main question is, what happens next? What do we have to do to repair the damage? What aspirations can we realistically hold on to and what is required for these dreams to be realised?
On the positive side, even if our country is in turmoil today, the world is too distracted by the economic crisis to pay us much attention. We are not losing out on investment flows because there aren't any.
The bad news, however, is that we are losing our goodwill capital and this will take a lot of hard work to win back.
Another positive is that there remains every opportunity for the situation to be contained. The terrorist acts in Mumbai provide a perspective. The public is clamouring for the PAD's head for causing disruption and economic damage, and though this is understandable, just imagine if instead of just sitting peacefully outside the airport, they had gone in and gunned down travellers inside the terminal. Imagine if they then said they would continue to do the same until the government quits.
The situation today is dire, but it is not the worst-case scenario. This damage can be repaired.
Still, what happens from now on is critical in deciding how we can proceed, and here I have fewer reasons to be optimistic.
The PAD should realise by now that the government is not interested in the effect the airport closures have on the country. Given that, the PAD should cease their airport protests. The only way of bringing down this government is to let justice be done through the courts of law. The only end-result that the PAD could possibly be hoping for in their protests is that the military play its hand. That would be negative for Thailand, and in my opinion, conversely play into the hands of Thaksin and his Red Army.
I say this because it is already obvious what the government should do if it were sincere in its intentions towards the country. It should mount a professional attempt to clear the protesters from the airports and then it should quit. If it feels it is incapable of effective action, then it should resign - and do so without delay.
The government should not be using the question of "then what?"as an excuse for doing nothing. Asking "then what" repeatedly is a sure way of leading ourselves into unnecessary deadlock. The government cannot claim a possible consequence in the future as a reason not to take responsibility for a real crisis today.
Unfortunately, there appears to be no chance of statesmanship from this government - a government that is now more overtly than ever dancing to Thaksin's tune.
The bottom-line message to my fellow politicians is: we chose to become politicians to help the country, and if quitting is the best way to ensure peace and a chance to move forward, then why even hesitate?
The problem is that it is now clear that the country is not their priority.
As a finance man, I understand the problem of "moral hazard" better than most. The concept of not wanting to set a bad precedent is critical in creating the right regulatory and governance system. However, in a crisis, it is almost always a mistake to be concerned about moral hazards. This is the mistake the IMF forced upon us in 1997 with the closure of the finance companies. The decision to let Lehman Brothers go bust is now widely perceived to have been critically flawed. In reverse, the financial support being given to banks and other financial institutions is what has prevented a meltdown in the broader economy.
The same is true with the current political crisis. The government should not be so self-serving in its repeated use of the argument that giving in to the PAD would undermine the ability of governments in the future to rule. That is an academic moral hazard issue that is irrelevant to the solving of today's problem.
The government's role is always as a problem-solver and, without a doubt, it is within its powers to solve the problem today. All it has to do is resign. That it refuses to do this is an abuse of the power entrusted to them by the people. It may yet also prove to have tragic consequences.
What we need now is a stable government that is perceived to represent the whole country. The retreat of PM Somchai Wongsawat's government to Chiang Mai, where it is cheered on by red-shirted supporters, is so sad in my eyes.
It appears that the government is happy to be seen to represent only its supporters, and that is depressing for the rest of us.
Once we have this stable government in place, simultaneous strategies must be effected to bring all Thais together. We need to work together to repair the damage socially and economically and rebuild our economy.
I am certain this can be done. Importantly, there is nothing wrong with our national balance sheet. What we do need to do, however, is convince the world that we are once again a safe and stable place to visit and to invest. This will involve integrated efforts to both promote and entice - an acknowledgement that we will be starting from a negative position. It will require a commitment to change that has long been needed - on issues of state enterprises, energy policy, education, irrigation and rural regeneration, the role of competition, the role of the private sector, etc.
Given our natural resources, our strategic positioning in a region that is more than ever going to be the world's economic engine and the low base from which we will be building, I have no doubt that it will be an opportunity of our lifetime to "Rebuild Thailand" into the country we can be proud of.
First though, the PAD must quit the airport blockade - their actions have already achieved the goal of exposing the government as incompetent and self-serving. Let the courts do their work and then let us beat them in the only appropriate way - through the ballot box.
Korn Chatikavanij is deputy leader of the Democrat Party.

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